{"id":4121,"date":"2026-03-20T10:09:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T10:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digitalnidvojcek.si\/integracija-dtsi-p-in-destine\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T11:25:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T11:25:43","slug":"dtsi-p-and-destine-integration","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/digitalnidvojcek.si\/sl\/dtsi-p-and-destine-integration\/","title":{"rendered":"Integracija DTSI-P in DestinE"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\n \n
\n Primer iz prakse 04\n <\/div>\n\n \n

\n Primerjava meteorolo\u0161kih modelov za napovedovanje poplav\n <\/h1>\n\n \n
\n V kolik\u0161ni meri se napovedi modelov DestinE in ARSO ALADIN ujemajo z dejanskimi meritvami v Sloveniji?\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n V tej \u0161tudiji primera primerjamo napovedi modelov DestinE in ARSO ALADIN z meritvami modela \u00bb\n \u00ab s 13 meteorolo\u0161kih postaj ARSO, da bi ocenili natan\u010dnost napovedi temperature\n in padavin za napovedna obdobja od 12 do 72 ur.\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n\n \n \n Razi\u0161\u010dite platformo LIFT\n \u2192<\/span>\n <\/a>\n\n \n \n Platforma Destination Earth\n \u2192<\/span>\n <\/a> \n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>
<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n
\n Kaj prikazuje ta \u0161tudija primera\n <\/div>\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Dva napovedna modela\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Modela DestinE in ARSO ALADIN sta ocenjena z uporabo istih opazovanj.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/circle>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 13 postaj ARSO\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Talne meritve po celotni Sloveniji zagotavljajo referen\u010dne podatke.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 12\u201372-urne napovedi\n <\/div>\n\n
\n U\u010dinkovitost je primerjana v \u0161estih razli\u010dnih \u010dasih napovedovanja.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Pomembnost za napovedovanje poplav\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Natan\u010dnost temperature in padavin pomaga oceniti primernost\n meteorolo\u0161kih vhodnih podatkov za uporabo pri obvladovanju poplavne ogro\u017eenosti.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Izziv Challenge\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Kako zanesljive so vremenske napovedi pri napovedovanju poplav?\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Natan\u010dne vremenske napovedi so klju\u010dnega pomena za predvidevanje\n mo\u010dnega de\u017eevja in morebitnih poplav.\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Programa DestinE in ARSO ALADIN uporabljata razli\u010dne pristope modeliranja,\n prostorske lo\u010dljivosti in ra\u010dunalni\u0161ke okvire. Njihove napovedi\n je zato treba primerjati z dejanskimi meritvami v\n slovenskih razmerah. \n <\/div>\n\n
\n\n
\n !\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Cilj je ugotoviti, kako dobro oba modela ponazarjata opazovane temperature in padavine v regiji\n.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Kako poteka primerjava\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Od podatkov napovedi do u\u010dinkovitosti modela\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 01\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Napovedni modeli\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Za primerjavo so zbrane napovedi modelov DestinE in ARSO ALADIN.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 02\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/circle>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Opazovanja s tal\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Referen\u010dne podatke zagotavljajo meritve s 13 postaj ARSO.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 03\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Spremenljivke\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Ocenjujeta se temperatura zraka na vi\u0161ini 2 m in skupna koli\u010dina padavin.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 04\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Roki dobave\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Napovedi se primerjajo za obdobja 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 in 72 ur.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 05\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Kazalniki napak\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Odklon, MAE in RMSE koli\u010dinsko opredeljujejo razliko med napovedmi in opazovanimi vrednostmi.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n 06\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Primerjava modelov\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Oba modela sta bila primerjana z istimi opazovanimi pogoji.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n Za zagotovitev dosledne primerjave med obema modeloma na spletni strani\n se uporabljajo iste opazovanja, spremenljivke in obdobja napovedi.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Oba napovedna izdelka\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Dva modela, dva pristopa k napovedovanju\n <\/div>\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n DestinE\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Vremenska napoved za Destination Earth\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Meteorolo\u0161ki produkt naslednje generacije, razvit v okviru projekta \u00bb\n \u00ab v okviru pobude Evropske komisije \u00bbDestination Earth\u00ab\n ter infrastrukture digitalnih dvojnikov.\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Destinacija Zemlja\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n ARSO ALADIN\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Operativna regionalna napoved\n <\/div>\n\n
\n ARSO za operativno regionalno napovedovanje, prilagojeno slovenskim geografskim in podnebnim razmeram, uporablja numeri\u010dni model za vremensko napovedovanje ALADIN\n.\n \n <\/div>\n\n
\n Deluje v Sloveniji \u00b7 ARSO\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Nastavitev primerjave\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Enotno merilo uspe\u0161nosti po vsej Sloveniji\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/circle>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 13\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Postaje ARSO\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/rect>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 1 mesec\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 18. februar \u2013 18. marec 2026\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 2\n <\/div>\n\n
\n meteorolo\u0161ke spremenljivke\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 6\n <\/div>\n\n
\n predvideni dobavni roki\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Temperatura \u2014 T2m [\u00b0C]\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Primerjava je bila opravljena v to\u010dno dolo\u010denem \u010dasu veljavnosti napovedi.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Padavine \u2014 skupna koli\u010dina padavin [mm]\n <\/div>\n\n
\n V primerjavi z ustreznim obdobjem, za katero je bila pripravljena napoved.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n Predvidena uspe\u0161nost se dosledno ocenjuje za obdobja\n 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 in 72 ur<\/strong>\n.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n
\n Rezultati\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Primerjava med 13 meteorolo\u0161kimi postajami\n <\/div>\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Kot referenca za primerjavo napovedi DestinE in ARSO ALADIN so bile uporabljene talne meritve ARSO s 13 postaj po Sloveniji.\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
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\n 13\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Postaje ARSO\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n
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\n Slovenija\n <\/div>\n\n
\n nacionalna pokritost\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Talne referen\u010dne meritve\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Meritve na postajah zagotavljajo referenco iz realnega sveta, potrebno za\n oceno uspe\u0161nosti napovedi v slovenskih razmerah.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n \"Izbrane\n\n
\n \n Izbrane meteorolo\u0161ke postaje ARSO, uporabljene v primerjavi.\n <\/strong>\n Rde\u010di ozna\u010devalniki prikazujejo talne referen\u010dne postaje.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n \n
\n Primer napovedi\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n Kaj napovedujeta oba modela?\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Spodnji primer primerja 72-urno napoved ARSO ALADIN\n in DestinE za temperaturo in akumulirane padavine nad Slovenijo.\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Kako brati sliko\n <\/div>\n\n
\n\n
\n
\n Zgornja vrstica\n <\/div>\n\n
\n ARSO ALADIN\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n
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\n Spodnja vrstica\n <\/div>\n\n
\n DestinE\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n
\n Levo\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Temperatura zraka na 2 m\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n
\n Desno\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Akumulirane padavine\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \u010casovna napoved\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 72 ur\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n \"Primerjava\n\n
\n \n Primer 72-urne napovedi nad Slovenijo.\n <\/strong>\n Inicializirano 18. februarja 2026 ob 00:00 UTC in veljavno\n 21. februarja 2026 ob 00:00 UTC.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n \n
\n Primer delovanja\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n Kako natan\u010dne so bile 24-urne napovedi?\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n V tem primeru so primerjane opazovanja na postaji Portoro\u017e\u2013Letali\u0161\u010de z 24-urnimi napovedmi za obmo\u010dje \u00bb\n \u00ab iz sistemov ARSO ALADIN in DestinE.\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/circle>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Portoro\u017e\u2013Letali\u0161\u010de\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Primer zemeljske referen\u010dne postaje ARSO.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n 24-urna vremenska napoved\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Oba napovedna izdelka se primerjata z istimi opazovanji.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Kako razumeti rezultate\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Ni\u017eje vrednosti napak ka\u017eejo na napovedi, ki so bli\u017eje dejanskim razmeram (\n ).\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n \"Primerjava\n\n
\n \n Primerjava 24-urnih napovedi za Portoro\u017e\u2013Letali\u0161\u010de.\n <\/strong>\n Meritve se primerjajo z napovedmi ARSO ALADIN in DestinE\n za temperaturo in padavine.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/circle>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Pristranskost\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Ka\u017ee, ali model sistemati\u010dno precenjuje vrednost \u00bb\n \u00ab ali podcenjuje opazovano vrednost.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n MAE\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Povpre\u010dna absolutna napaka prikazuje povpre\u010dno velikost napake napovedi\n.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n RMSE\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Kvadratna srednja napaka daje ve\u010djo te\u017eo ve\u010djim napakam v napovedih\n.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n\n
<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Manj\u0161a napaka\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Bolj\u0161a skladnost z opazovanji.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n
<\/div>\n\n
\n
\n Ve\u010dja napaka\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Ve\u010dja razlika v primerjavi z opazovanji.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
\n\n \n
\n Klju\u010dne ugotovitve\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n Kaj je pokazala predhodna primerjava?\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n Za\u010detna primerjava ponuja prvi vpogled v to, kako se DestinE\n in ARSO ALADIN obneseta v primerjavi s terenskimi opazovanji v Sloveniji.\n <\/div>\n\n \n
\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Temperatura\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Splo\u0161no primerljiva u\u010dinkovitost\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Tako DestinE kot ARSO ALADIN sta v analiziranem obdobju pokazala splo\u0161no primerljivo\n u\u010dinkovitost za temperaturo zraka na 2 m.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Padavine\n <\/div>\n\n
\n DestinE je pokazal obetavne rezultate\n <\/div>\n\n
\n DestinE je na splo\u0161no pokazal bolj\u0161o u\u010dinkovitost pri napovedovanju padavin\n kot ARSO ALADIN, zlasti pri kraj\u0161ih napovednih \u010dasih.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n \n <\/circle>\n <\/path>\n <\/path>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Pomemben kontekst\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Predhodna primerjava\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Analiza zajema le en mesec in jo je zato treba\n interpretirati kot za\u010detno primerjavo in ne kot popolno\n oceno dogodkov z velikim vplivom na vreme.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n \n
\n\n
\n Glavna ugotovitev\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Rezultati ka\u017eejo, da lahko DestinE zagotovi meteorolo\u0161ke napovedne\n informacije, ki so relevantne za integracijo v delovne tokove\n digitalnega dvoj\u010dka, medtem ko je za zanesljive\n zaklju\u010dke o ekstremnih padavinah in dogodkih, povezanih s poplavami, potrebna dolgoro\u010dnej\u0161a evalvacija.\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Prispevki<\/h3><\/div>

Partnerske organizacije, ki prispevajo<\/p>\n<\/div>

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